Furutani Campaign Releases New Poll

 

August 11, 2016 - Ordinarily, political campaigns selectively release poll data, divulging only the portions of the poll that paint them in the best light. We have chosen a different path.

Today, we are releasing the entire text of the most recent poll we conducted, warts and all.  We want people to be able to see for themselves the dynamics of this race.

The poll, conducted from July 30 through August 1 by Goodwin Simon Strategic Research, shows that Furutani begins the race narrowly trailing Steven Bradford by 4 percent, 29% to 25%, with a 45% plurality undecided. Each candidate was identified using the precise ballot title they used in the June primary.

The poll then read positive profiles of the two candidates that accurately summarized the messages each has delivered to date. The statements were of identical length. As a result of the statements, each candidate consolidated their base, and Bradford maintained a narrow lead, 39% to 36%, which is within the poll’s margin of error.

The survey then read two negative statements about each candidate, all of which have been aired publicly in this and past campaigns. In the aftermath, Furutani surged to a 14% lead, 41% to 27%.

In particular, one statement stood out for its impact:

“Bradford was arrested for hitting a police officer with his B-M-W. He was also accused of harassing a 73 year old ice cream vendor for two years. In both cases, Bradford was accused of flashing an honorary badge in an attempt to make people think he was a police officer.”

Sixty three percent of voters said this statement made them “very concerned.” Within key demographic groups, the results at the end of the poll were as follows: 

 

Furutani

Bradford

Asian/Pacific Islander

47%

24%

Black

25%

37%

Latino

46%

25%

White

49%

18%

The bottom line is that after hearing identical amounts of information about each of the two candidates, Furutani emerges with a strong lead. Of particular note is that Furutani is well positioned to consolidate the Latino vote, which is the largest segment of the voting population. In the primary, most Latino voters supported Isaac Galvan (who came in third, with 22.4% of the vote). In the general, they are strongly inclined to support Furutani.

Please click here to see the entire poll and click here to read a brief memo from Goodwin Simon Strategic Research. 

 


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